In marketing, is there such a thing as a "sure thing"?

I’ve been thinking this week about “sure things.”

NFL fans thought they were watching one Saturday night when the L. A. Chargers took a commanding 27-0 lead just before halftime of their playoff game against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

In pro football, a score like that can only mean, “BUTT-WHOOPING!”

27-0? Game over, man! (For perspective, only once in the 103-year history of the NFL has a playoff team ever squandered a lead that large.)

Sure thing? You BET! A fact which gave one opportunistic gambler this idea:

One quick call to my bookie + A $1.4 million wager on the Chargers = An easy way to make $11,400—in just 90 minutes!

He placed the bet.

Except, it WASN'T a sure thing. The Jaguars came roaring back, winning the game 31-30 in the final seconds.

I see “sure things” in the world of marketing all the time. 

Agencies “guaranteeing” a certain ROI. Fast-talking Instagrammers claiming, “Use our can’t-miss marketing system and in no time, you’ll be hiring a new accounting firm to keep up with all the revenue!”

Never mind that business—like football—involves a host of factors. 

Remember...the best marketing campaign in the world can’t overcome a shoddy product, adverse market conditions, lousy customer service, the wrong sales strategy, or a competitor that's clicking on all cylinders.

When will we learn? 

For sure, some marketing frameworks have an remarkable track record (StoryBrand is one). But none of them is a “sure thing.”

So, be careful with those hard-earned marketing dollars. 

“Proven?” “Probable results?” “Likely outcomes?” Yes, please.

But “sure thing”? That's a dangerous bet.